Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | MCN -4000 NOLA +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +37 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -23.1 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (+18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -20.1 (+16.9) | 148.1 (+18.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -17.8 (+19.2) | 147.4 (+19.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -16.9 (+20.1) | 148.6 (+18.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -18.8 (+18.2) | 147.1 (+19.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MCN 66 – 63 NOLA |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MCN 82 – 63 NOLA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MCN 78 – 64 NOLA |
| Dec 28, 2024 | MCN 86 – 61 NOLA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MCN 81 – 57 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-4 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 4-14 |
| Home | 18-0 | 7-6 |
| Away | 11-3 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.8 | 81.6 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#81) | -12.4 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#32) | -2.13 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#27) | -2.95 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#51) | 0.378 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 40.5% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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