Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | MCN -2800 NOLA +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +19 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -16.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -14.9 (+4.1) | 148.3 (-3.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -16.8 (+2.2) | 147.6 (-2.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -12.8 (+6.2) | 150.4 (-5.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -14.0 (+5.0) | 150.1 (-5.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MCN 66 – 63 NOLA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MCN 78 – 64 NOLA |
| Dec 28, 2024 | MCN 86 – 61 NOLA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MCN 81 – 57 NOLA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MCN 102 – 65 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 19-3 | 12-10 |
| Home | 14-0 | 5-6 |
| Away | 9-5 | 9-11 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#66) | -3.5 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#66) | -0.61 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#64) | -0.75 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#50) | 0.473 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.0% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 63.5% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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