Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | MCN -10000 NOLA +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +25 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -21.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -16.1 (+8.9) | 138.6 (+8.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -19.3 (+5.7) | 138.4 (+8.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -15.1 (+9.9) | 137.7 (+9.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -16.4 (+8.6) | 138.7 (+8.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MCN 66 – 63 NOLA |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MCN 82 – 63 NOLA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MCN 78 – 64 NOLA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MCN 81 – 57 NOLA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MCN 102 – 65 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 2-18 |
| Home | 15-1 | 0-11 |
| Away | 10-2 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L13 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 82.5 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#89) | -11.3 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#117) | -1.24 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#101) | -1.76 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#55) | 0.466 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.2% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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