Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | NOLA +900 MCN -2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +24 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | MCN -18.9 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -20.0 (-4.0) | 144.8 (-6.8) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -13.1 (-10.9) | 144.6 (-6.6) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -16.6 (-7.4) | 145.9 (-7.9) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -16.5 (-7.5) | 147.1 (-9.1) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MCN 66 – 63 NOLA |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MCN 82 – 63 NOLA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MCN 78 – 64 NOLA |
| Dec 28, 2024 | MCN 86 – 61 NOLA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MCN 102 – 65 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 30-4 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 17-1 |
| Home | 7-6 | 18-0 |
| Away | 2-15 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 64.8 |
| Massey | -13.8 (#347) | 8.4 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.58 (#347) | 1.90 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.32 (#351) | 2.40 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.397 (#342) | 0.590 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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