Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | AMER -155 BU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +3 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -3.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -2.6 (-5.6) | 145.1 (-12.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -2.8 (-5.8) | 144.2 (-11.2) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -2.7 (-5.7) | 146.1 (-13.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -3.2 (-6.2) | 144.5 (-11.5) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | BU 75 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 3, 2026 | AMER 64 – 62 BU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | AMER 48 – 44 BU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BU 60 – 54 AMER |
| Feb 22, 2024 | BU 67 – 52 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#247) | -5.7 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#263) | -1.44 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#255) | -1.87 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#232) | 0.439 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.5% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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