Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | AMER -195 BU +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +4 | 92 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -5.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (-37.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -4.6 (-0.6) | 132.5 (-40.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -4.2 (-0.2) | 131.1 (-39.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -4.8 (-0.8) | 132.0 (-40.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -4.7 (-0.7) | 133.3 (-41.3) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | BU 75 – 73 AMER |
| Feb 28, 2026 | BU 68 – 65 AMER |
| Jan 3, 2026 | AMER 64 – 62 BU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BU 60 – 54 AMER |
| Feb 22, 2024 | BU 67 – 52 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#259) | -8.4 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#202) | -1.12 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#215) | -1.52 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#152) | 0.457 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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