Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | BU -122 AMER +102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +2 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | BU -2.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -2.0 (+0.0) | 140.8 (+7.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -1.5 (+0.5) | 141.0 (+7.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -1.7 (+0.3) | 141.7 (+6.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -2.5 (-0.5) | 141.5 (+6.5) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BU 68 – 65 AMER |
| Jan 3, 2026 | AMER 64 – 62 BU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | AMER 48 – 44 BU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BU 60 – 54 AMER |
| Feb 22, 2024 | BU 67 – 52 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-12 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#255) | -5.3 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#289) | -1.17 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#293) | -1.35 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#295) | 0.476 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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