Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | BU -115 AMER -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +2 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | BU -3.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (-30.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -1.1 (-3.1) | 147.6 (-21.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -0.7 (-2.7) | 145.1 (-19.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -0.0 (-2.0) | 147.9 (-21.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BU -1.3 (-3.3) | 149.5 (-23.5) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | BU 75 – 73 AMER |
| Feb 28, 2026 | BU 68 – 65 AMER |
| Feb 22, 2025 | AMER 48 – 44 BU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BU 60 – 54 AMER |
| Feb 22, 2024 | BU 67 – 52 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-12 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#272) | -5.8 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#303) | -0.55 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.19 (#334) | -0.81 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#323) | 0.474 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 34.1% |
Game Analysis
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