Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Patriot League · Case Gym · January 3, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread BU -1.5 Away covered
O/U 142.5 Under
Money BU -115 / AMER -105
Model Predictions
Spread Total BU win
Actual AMER +2 126 Lost
Massey BU -3.0 (-5.0)
Massey Totals 156.7 (-30.7)
Bradley-Terry 38%
Weighted B-T 16%
Baseline Plus ML AMER -0.0 (-2.0) 147.9 (-21.9) 53%
Model 4 ML BU -0.7 (-2.7) 145.1 (-19.1) 53%
Model 3 ML BU -1.1 (-3.1) 147.6 (-21.6) 57%
Baseline ML BU -1.3 (-3.3) 149.5 (-23.5) 61%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 6, 2026 BU 7573 AMER
Feb 28, 2026 BU 6865 AMER
Feb 22, 2025 AMER 4844 BU
Jan 9, 2025 BU 6054 AMER
Feb 22, 2024 BU 6752 AMER

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BU AMER
Overall 17-17 16-16
Conference 10-8 9-9
Home 10-5 11-6
Away 6-12 5-10
Neutral 1-0 0-0
Last 5 1-4 3-2
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 74.6 72.0
Avg Pts Against 74.5 72.7
Massey -6.7 (#272) -5.8 (#253)
Bradley-Terry -1.69 (#303) -0.55 (#227)
W. Bradley-Terry -3.19 (#334) -0.81 (#222)
RPI 0.410 (#323) 0.474 (#222)
Shooting & Four Factors BU AMER
FG% 47.4% 43.4%
3PT% 37.3% 34.2%
REB / G 30.5 29.2
OREB / G 9.2 8.7
AST / TO 1.18 1.09
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.8% 51.4%
TOV% 18.5% 16.3%
ORB% 29.4% 24.4%
FT Rate 20.3% 22.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.8% 55.9%
Opp TOV% 15.2% 20.3%
DRB% 68.9% 66.6%
Opp FT Rate 27.9% 34.1%

Game Analysis

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