Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | AMER -225 BU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +15 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -5.5 (-20.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -3.8 (-18.8) | 129.9 (-10.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -2.3 (-17.3) | 129.3 (-10.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -3.7 (-18.7) | 131.5 (-12.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -3.7 (-18.7) | 131.2 (-12.2) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | BU 75 – 73 AMER |
| Feb 28, 2026 | BU 68 – 65 AMER |
| Jan 3, 2026 | AMER 64 – 62 BU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | AMER 48 – 44 BU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BU 60 – 54 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-7 | 9-7 |
| Away | 8-9 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#269) | -7.5 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#308) | -1.66 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#295) | -1.86 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#314) | 0.425 (#319) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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