Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | BU -155 AMER +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +6 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | BU -5.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (-16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -2.8 (+3.2) | 131.3 (-17.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -3.5 (+2.5) | 130.2 (-16.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -2.8 (+3.2) | 132.1 (-18.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -3.0 (+3.0) | 132.0 (-18.0) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | BU 75 – 73 AMER |
| Feb 28, 2026 | BU 68 – 65 AMER |
| Jan 3, 2026 | AMER 64 – 62 BU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | AMER 48 – 44 BU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | BU 67 – 52 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#263) | -7.2 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#272) | -0.56 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#271) | -0.83 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#290) | 0.480 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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