Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | PV -205 ALCN +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +21 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | PV -6.9 (+14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.1 (-36.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -4.3 (+16.7) | 150.3 (-27.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -4.7 (+16.3) | 152.6 (-29.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -4.7 (+16.3) | 149.1 (-26.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -4.2 (+16.8) | 150.5 (-27.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | PV 65 – 56 ALCN |
| Jan 19, 2026 | ALCN 76 – 75 PV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALCN 71 – 55 PV |
| Jan 20, 2025 | ALCN 78 – 70 PV |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ALCN 73 – 65 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-18 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-3 | 5-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -12.3 (#331) | -16.2 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#327) | -1.84 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.36 (#324) | -2.48 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#331) | 0.410 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 34.3% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 63.8% | 63.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.4% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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