We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Southwestern Athletic Conference · Davey L. Whitney Complex · March 1, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ALCN -9.5 Home covered
O/U 142.5 Under
Money ALCN -650 / PV +425
Model Predictions
Spread Total ALCN win
Actual ALCN +16 126 Won
Massey ALCN -8.6 (+7.4)
Massey Totals 146.7 (-20.7)
Bradley-Terry 93%
Weighted B-T 96%
Efficiency Plus ML ALCN -9.1 (+6.9) 140.4 (-14.4) 81%
Baseline Tuned ML ALCN -9.3 (+6.7) 142.4 (-16.4) 83%
Baseline ML ALCN -8.3 (+7.7) 142.1 (-16.1) 84%
Baseline Plus ML ALCN -7.6 (+8.4) 142.6 (-16.6) 82%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 10, 2026 PV 6556 ALCN
Feb 28, 2026 PV 7251 ALCN
Jan 19, 2026 ALCN 7675 PV
Jan 20, 2025 ALCN 7870 PV
Mar 2, 2024 ALCN 7365 PV

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ALCN PV
Overall 11-21 5-27
Conference 11-7 4-14
Home 6-3 3-7
Away 5-17 2-19
Neutral 0-1 0-1
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L1 L4
Avg Pts For 65.3 70.2
Avg Pts Against 72.4 82.2
Massey -10.1 (#325) -15.6 (#356)
Bradley-Terry -1.65 (#316) -3.68 (#360)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.92 (#305) -4.42 (#361)
RPI 0.441 (#293) 0.376 (#357)
Shooting & Four Factors ALCN PV
FG% 40.7% 43.0%
3PT% 32.6% 32.2%
REB / G 33.8 27.8
OREB / G 12.0 8.5
AST / TO 0.75 0.98
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.7% 48.4%
TOV% 20.0% 16.9%
ORB% 33.7% 23.8%
FT Rate 22.1% 24.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.1% 56.1%
Opp TOV% 18.3% 20.1%
DRB% 66.6% 60.9%
Opp FT Rate 23.6% 29.5%

Game Analysis

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