Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | ALCN -650 PV +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +16 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -8.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -7.6 (+8.4) | 142.6 (-16.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -9.1 (+6.9) | 140.4 (-14.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -9.3 (+6.7) | 142.4 (-16.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -8.3 (+7.7) | 142.1 (-16.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | PV 65 – 56 ALCN |
| Feb 28, 2026 | PV 72 – 51 ALCN |
| Jan 19, 2026 | ALCN 76 – 75 PV |
| Jan 20, 2025 | ALCN 78 – 70 PV |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ALCN 73 – 65 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 6-3 | 3-7 |
| Away | 5-17 | 2-19 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 82.2 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#325) | -15.6 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#316) | -3.68 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#305) | -4.42 (#361) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#293) | 0.376 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 27.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 60.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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