Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | ALCN +114 PV -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +1 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | PV -4.3 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -3.6 (+4.6) | 149.4 (+1.6) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -3.2 (+4.2) | 148.0 (+3.0) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PV -3.4 (+4.4) | 146.4 (+4.6) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -3.1 (+4.1) | 153.1 (-2.1) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | PV 65 – 56 ALCN |
| Feb 28, 2026 | PV 72 – 51 ALCN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALCN 71 – 55 PV |
| Jan 20, 2025 | ALCN 78 – 70 PV |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ALCN 73 – 65 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 19-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 2-18 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -17.4 (#357) | -9.8 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#333) | -1.29 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.56 (#324) | -1.68 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#329) | 0.433 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.1% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 60.7% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 38.3% |
Game Analysis
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