Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | PV +180 ALCN -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +8 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | PV -0.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -1.4 (-6.6) | 139.2 (-1.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -0.8 (-7.2) | 141.3 (-3.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -0.9 (-7.1) | 143.0 (-5.0) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -1.6 (-6.4) | 141.8 (-3.8) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | PV 65 – 56 ALCN |
| Feb 28, 2026 | PV 72 – 51 ALCN |
| Jan 19, 2026 | ALCN 76 – 75 PV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALCN 71 – 55 PV |
| Jan 20, 2025 | ALCN 78 – 70 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-6 | 7-3 |
| Away | 4-15 | 7-14 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -11.8 (#334) | -8.7 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#308) | -0.99 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#316) | -1.25 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#301) | 0.469 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.5% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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