Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | PV -285 ALCN +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +9 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | PV -5.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (-32.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -5.4 (+3.6) | 146.2 (-25.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -6.7 (+2.3) | 141.1 (-20.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -5.9 (+3.1) | 140.2 (-19.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -5.8 (+3.2) | 141.4 (-20.4) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PV 72 – 51 ALCN |
| Jan 19, 2026 | ALCN 76 – 75 PV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALCN 71 – 55 PV |
| Jan 20, 2025 | ALCN 78 – 70 PV |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ALCN 73 – 65 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-18 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-3 | 5-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -11.4 (#324) | -17.3 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#319) | -1.88 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#312) | -2.59 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#308) | 0.419 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 32.9% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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