Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | PV -165 ALCN +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +8 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | PV -5.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -4.3 (-12.3) | 142.5 (+5.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -3.2 (-11.2) | 141.9 (+6.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -4.1 (-12.1) | 142.8 (+5.2) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PV -4.5 (-12.5) | 142.7 (+5.3) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | PV 65 – 56 ALCN |
| Feb 28, 2026 | PV 72 – 51 ALCN |
| Jan 19, 2026 | ALCN 76 – 75 PV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALCN 71 – 55 PV |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ALCN 73 – 65 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 3-7 | 6-3 |
| Away | 2-19 | 5-17 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -11.4 (#333) | -13.4 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#344) | -2.28 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.14 (#341) | -3.00 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#318) | 0.412 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 27.1 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 42.5% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.6% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 59.0% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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