Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -1450 UL +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +23 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -13.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -12.9 (+10.1) | 140.9 (-1.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -14.2 (+8.8) | 141.7 (-2.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -13.1 (+9.9) | 141.9 (-2.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -12.3 (+10.7) | 141.6 (-2.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | ARST 79 – 62 UL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | ARST 83 – 64 UL |
| Jan 17, 2025 | ARST 83 – 63 UL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ARST 89 – 62 UL |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UL 81 – 75 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 9-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#147) | -10.0 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#134) | -1.32 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#128) | -1.78 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#90) | 0.443 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 33.8% |
Game Analysis
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