Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UL +310 ARST -395 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +17 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -8.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -6.5 (-10.5) | 142.7 (-1.7) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -8.1 (-8.9) | 141.3 (-0.3) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -7.9 (-9.1) | 141.7 (-0.7) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -7.5 (-9.5) | 144.2 (-3.2) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ARST 81 – 58 UL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | ARST 83 – 64 UL |
| Jan 17, 2025 | ARST 83 – 63 UL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ARST 89 – 62 UL |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UL 81 – 75 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-8 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 78.0 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#307) | 1.0 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#294) | 0.26 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#295) | 0.39 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#292) | 0.534 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 41.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 38.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.4% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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