Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UL +550 ARST -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +19 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -11.8 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -10.7 (-8.3) | 143.4 (+3.6) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -10.2 (-8.8) | 144.1 (+2.9) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -11.4 (-7.6) | 142.1 (+4.9) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -10.7 (-8.3) | 143.1 (+3.9) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ARST 81 – 58 UL |
| Feb 20, 2026 | ARST 79 – 62 UL |
| Jan 17, 2025 | ARST 83 – 63 UL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ARST 89 – 62 UL |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UL 81 – 75 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-12 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#311) | 6.1 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#275) | 0.62 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#283) | 1.01 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#241) | 0.553 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.3% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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