Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -167 UL +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +27 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | UL -1.0 (+28.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -0.1 (+27.1) | 148.8 (+2.2) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -0.3 (+27.3) | 146.7 (+4.3) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -0.0 (+27.0) | 146.8 (+4.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -0.0 (+27.0) | 147.3 (+3.7) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ARST 81 – 58 UL |
| Feb 20, 2026 | ARST 79 – 62 UL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | ARST 83 – 64 UL |
| Jan 17, 2025 | ARST 83 – 63 UL |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UL 81 – 75 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#157) | 1.8 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#169) | 0.15 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#153) | 0.24 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#159) | 0.535 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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