Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -3000 UL +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +20 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -20.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -15.9 (+4.1) | 144.8 (+1.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -14.8 (+5.2) | 146.3 (-0.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -15.3 (+4.7) | 146.4 (-0.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -17.0 (+3.0) | 145.5 (+0.5) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ARST 81 – 58 UL |
| Feb 20, 2026 | ARST 79 – 62 UL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | ARST 83 – 64 UL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ARST 89 – 62 UL |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UL 81 – 75 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 5-12 |
| Away | 8-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#96) | -11.8 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#81) | -1.82 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#82) | -2.34 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#48) | 0.428 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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