Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | UL -188 ARST +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +6 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UL -6.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -6.3 (-0.3) | 152.9 (+3.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -7.5 (-1.5) | 150.4 (+5.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -5.5 (+0.5) | 148.6 (+7.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -6.1 (-0.1) | 150.7 (+5.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ARST 81 – 58 UL |
| Feb 20, 2026 | ARST 79 – 62 UL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | ARST 83 – 64 UL |
| Jan 17, 2025 | ARST 83 – 63 UL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ARST 89 – 62 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#137) | -0.8 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#138) | -0.62 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#142) | -0.55 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#128) | 0.459 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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