Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | LUC +130 RICH -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +3 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | RICH -8.6 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -5.3 (+8.3) | 143.3 (-8.3) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -7.2 (+10.2) | 143.8 (-8.8) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -7.2 (+10.2) | 144.9 (-9.9) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -7.0 (+10.0) | 144.3 (-9.3) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | LUC 75 – 67 RICH |
| Feb 12, 2025 | LUC 87 – 80 RICH |
| Jan 10, 2024 | RICH 58 – 56 LUC |
| Feb 11, 2023 | RICH 74 – 71 LUC |
| Dec 18, 2020 | RICH 75 – 73 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-10 | 11-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#298) | 2.7 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#313) | -0.00 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.17 (#317) | 0.32 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#325) | 0.491 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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