Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | RICH -205 LUC +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +8 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | RICH -9.6 (-17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -7.9 (-15.9) | 137.2 (+4.8) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -5.9 (-13.9) | 138.8 (+3.2) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -7.5 (-15.5) | 137.2 (+4.8) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -7.5 (-15.5) | 136.3 (+5.7) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | LUC 69 – 66 RICH |
| Feb 12, 2025 | LUC 87 – 80 RICH |
| Jan 10, 2024 | RICH 58 – 56 LUC |
| Feb 11, 2023 | RICH 74 – 71 LUC |
| Dec 18, 2020 | RICH 75 – 73 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-7 | 6-10 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#131) | -7.4 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#195) | -1.24 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#159) | -1.71 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#231) | 0.433 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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