Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | LUC +100 RICH -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +2 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | RICH -1.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -0.6 (-1.4) | 148.4 (-0.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -0.1 (-1.9) | 143.7 (+4.3) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -0.2 (-1.8) | 148.7 (-0.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -0.6 (-2.6) | 148.2 (-0.2) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | LUC 75 – 67 RICH |
| Feb 28, 2026 | LUC 69 – 66 RICH |
| Feb 12, 2025 | LUC 87 – 80 RICH |
| Jan 10, 2024 | RICH 58 – 56 LUC |
| Feb 11, 2023 | RICH 74 – 71 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-5 | 14-9 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 6-5 |
| Home | 13-0 | 6-4 |
| Away | 8-3 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.4 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#78) | 7.0 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#90) | 2.14 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#84) | 3.23 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#90) | 0.617 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 19.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 84.7% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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