Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | RICH +175 LUC -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +7 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -2.9 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+30.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -3.3 (-3.7) | 136.1 (+30.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -2.1 (-4.9) | 134.5 (+32.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -2.7 (-4.3) | 135.4 (+31.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -3.6 (-3.4) | 134.8 (+32.2) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | LUC 75 – 67 RICH |
| Feb 28, 2026 | LUC 69 – 66 RICH |
| Jan 10, 2024 | RICH 58 – 56 LUC |
| Feb 11, 2023 | RICH 74 – 71 LUC |
| Dec 18, 2020 | RICH 75 – 73 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-9 | 17-1 |
| Away | 2-11 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-6 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#251) | 0.9 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#256) | 0.45 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#242) | 0.61 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#227) | 0.520 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 19.2% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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