Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | RICH -350 LUC +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | RICH -10.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -9.4 (-6.4) | 138.3 (+6.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -7.9 (-4.9) | 141.2 (+3.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -8.5 (-5.5) | 142.7 (+2.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -9.6 (-6.6) | 139.3 (+5.7) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | LUC 75 – 67 RICH |
| Feb 28, 2026 | LUC 69 – 66 RICH |
| Feb 12, 2025 | LUC 87 – 80 RICH |
| Jan 10, 2024 | RICH 58 – 56 LUC |
| Dec 18, 2020 | RICH 75 – 73 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 1-11 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#147) | -5.7 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#177) | -1.00 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#150) | -1.15 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#161) | 0.441 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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