Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -140 RICH +118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +2 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | RICH -0.1 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (-19.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -0.8 (-2.8) | 134.1 (-20.1) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -1.5 (-3.5) | 134.3 (-20.3) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -1.3 (-3.3) | 132.3 (-18.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -1.3 (-3.3) | 133.7 (-19.7) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | LUC 75 – 67 RICH |
| Feb 28, 2026 | LUC 69 – 66 RICH |
| Feb 12, 2025 | LUC 87 – 80 RICH |
| Feb 11, 2023 | RICH 74 – 71 LUC |
| Dec 18, 2020 | RICH 75 – 73 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#138) | 6.3 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#126) | 0.52 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#133) | 0.85 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#128) | 0.490 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 12.0% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 19.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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