Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | WIN -355 PRES +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +4 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -11.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -10.9 (-6.9) | 143.0 (+1.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -10.7 (-6.7) | 143.2 (+0.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -10.4 (-6.4) | 142.6 (+1.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -10.3 (-6.3) | 144.1 (-0.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | WIN 73 – 71 PRES |
| Jan 24, 2026 | WIN 82 – 72 PRES |
| Feb 20, 2025 | WIN 81 – 77 PRES |
| Jan 29, 2025 | WIN 76 – 67 PRES |
| Feb 21, 2024 | PRES 78 – 55 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 7-9 |
| Home | 13-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#136) | -6.7 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#143) | -1.20 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#152) | -1.83 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#66) | 0.461 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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