Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | WIN -325 PRES +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +2 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -8.2 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -7.0 (-5.0) | 142.6 (+1.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -7.5 (-5.5) | 143.0 (+1.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -6.6 (-4.6) | 140.9 (+3.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -6.8 (-4.8) | 139.6 (+4.4) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | WIN 74 – 70 PRES |
| Jan 24, 2026 | WIN 82 – 72 PRES |
| Feb 20, 2025 | WIN 81 – 77 PRES |
| Jan 29, 2025 | WIN 76 – 67 PRES |
| Feb 21, 2024 | PRES 78 – 55 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 7-9 |
| Home | 13-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#140) | -6.5 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#136) | -1.23 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#144) | -1.79 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#60) | 0.459 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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