Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | PRES +135 WIN -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +4 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | PRES -0.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRES -0.3 (-4.3) | 151.0 (+7.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRES -0.7 (-4.7) | 151.9 (+6.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PRES -0.4 (-4.4) | 153.1 (+4.9) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRES -0.7 (-4.7) | 153.4 (+4.6) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | WIN 73 – 71 PRES |
| Feb 28, 2026 | WIN 74 – 70 PRES |
| Jan 24, 2026 | WIN 82 – 72 PRES |
| Jan 29, 2025 | WIN 76 – 67 PRES |
| Feb 21, 2024 | PRES 78 – 55 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 11-5 |
| Home | 8-5 | 16-2 |
| Away | 4-12 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 79.8 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#251) | -2.2 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#268) | 0.14 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#256) | 0.03 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#298) | 0.514 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 33.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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