Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | WIN -340 PRES +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +9 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -7.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -5.7 (+3.3) | 152.3 (-9.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -5.6 (+3.4) | 150.5 (-7.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -5.1 (+3.9) | 150.9 (-7.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -5.4 (+3.6) | 152.8 (-9.8) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | WIN 73 – 71 PRES |
| Feb 28, 2026 | WIN 74 – 70 PRES |
| Jan 24, 2026 | WIN 82 – 72 PRES |
| Feb 20, 2025 | WIN 81 – 77 PRES |
| Feb 21, 2024 | PRES 78 – 55 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 16-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#206) | -6.0 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#184) | -1.31 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#187) | -1.57 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#178) | 0.416 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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