Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | PSU +410 IOWA -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +2 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -11.2 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -10.3 (+12.3) | 135.8 (+4.2) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -8.8 (+10.8) | 139.4 (+0.6) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -9.3 (+11.3) | 140.5 (-0.5) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -10.0 (+12.0) | 137.0 (+3.0) | 18% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2025 | IOWA 76 – 75 PSU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | IOWA 90 – 81 PSU |
| Feb 9, 2024 | PSU 89 – 79 IOWA |
| Jan 1, 2023 | PSU 83 – 79 IOWA |
| Feb 1, 2022 | PSU 90 – 86 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 10-10 |
| Home | 9-8 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#130) | 16.5 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#139) | 2.55 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#158) | 3.28 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#199) | 0.583 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.3% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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