Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -138 IOWA +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +4 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -2.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -3.3 (+0.7) | 151.1 (+10.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -2.7 (+1.3) | 150.4 (+11.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -3.7 (+0.3) | 149.9 (+12.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -3.3 (+0.7) | 151.1 (+10.9) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PSU 71 – 69 IOWA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | IOWA 76 – 75 PSU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | IOWA 90 – 81 PSU |
| Feb 9, 2024 | PSU 89 – 79 IOWA |
| Feb 1, 2022 | PSU 90 – 86 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#63) | 9.9 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#57) | 1.21 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#55) | 1.80 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#83) | 0.540 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 1.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 18.9% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 12.9% |
Game Analysis
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