Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Under |
| Money | IOWA -175 PSU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +1 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -1.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.8 (-20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -2.7 (-1.7) | 161.5 (-10.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -2.3 (-1.3) | 162.7 (-11.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -2.2 (-1.2) | 164.6 (-13.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -2.0 (-1.0) | 165.9 (-14.9) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PSU 71 – 69 IOWA |
| Feb 28, 2024 | IOWA 90 – 81 PSU |
| Feb 9, 2024 | PSU 89 – 79 IOWA |
| Jan 1, 2023 | PSU 83 – 79 IOWA |
| Feb 1, 2022 | PSU 90 – 86 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.5 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#56) | 12.9 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#63) | 1.71 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#60) | 2.44 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#84) | 0.559 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.86 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.6% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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