Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA -450 PSU +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +9 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -8.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.1 (+4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -6.4 (+2.6) | 162.3 (+8.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -6.7 (+2.3) | 158.2 (+12.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -6.9 (+2.1) | 159.8 (+11.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -6.4 (+2.6) | 161.7 (+9.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PSU 71 – 69 IOWA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | IOWA 76 – 75 PSU |
| Feb 9, 2024 | PSU 89 – 79 IOWA |
| Jan 1, 2023 | PSU 83 – 79 IOWA |
| Feb 1, 2022 | PSU 90 – 86 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#47) | 6.5 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#66) | 0.85 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#57) | 1.23 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#87) | 0.516 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.77 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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