Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +4 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -5.4 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+34.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -4.2 (+8.2) | 137.7 (+38.3) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -4.0 (+8.0) | 136.1 (+39.9) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -3.7 (+7.7) | 138.0 (+38.0) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -3.6 (+7.6) | 140.3 (+35.7) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PSU 71 – 69 IOWA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | IOWA 76 – 75 PSU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | IOWA 90 – 81 PSU |
| Feb 9, 2024 | PSU 89 – 79 IOWA |
| Jan 1, 2023 | PSU 83 – 79 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#89) | 14.7 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#84) | 2.06 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#87) | 2.78 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#91) | 0.574 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.