Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -111 IOWA -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +10 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -1.9 (+11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -0.9 (+10.9) | 159.5 (+8.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -0.4 (+9.6) | 158.1 (+9.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -0.9 (+10.9) | 158.2 (+9.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -1.0 (+11.0) | 158.0 (+10.0) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PSU 71 – 69 IOWA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | IOWA 76 – 75 PSU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | IOWA 90 – 81 PSU |
| Jan 1, 2023 | PSU 83 – 79 IOWA |
| Feb 1, 2022 | PSU 90 – 86 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 79.4 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#91) | 11.4 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#121) | 1.35 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#104) | 1.96 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#149) | 0.548 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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