Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | SDAK +142 SDST -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +5 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -3.2 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -3.1 (+8.1) | 149.5 (-4.5) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -1.8 (+6.8) | 148.8 (-3.8) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -2.2 (+7.2) | 149.7 (-4.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -2.3 (+7.3) | 152.3 (-7.3) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | SDAK 68 – 67 SDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | SDST 94 – 91 SDAK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SDST 90 – 71 SDAK |
| Feb 4, 2024 | SDST 70 – 67 SDAK |
| Jan 20, 2024 | SDST 73 – 55 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.7 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#282) | -1.3 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#264) | -0.96 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#256) | -0.88 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#304) | 0.464 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 33.5% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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