Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 174.5 Over |
| Money | SDAK +195 SDST -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +3 | 185 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -7.1 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -5.8 (+2.8) | 165.7 (+19.3) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -6.1 (+3.1) | 163.7 (+21.3) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -5.3 (+2.3) | 163.4 (+21.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -5.3 (+2.3) | 167.2 (+17.8) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SDAK 75 – 70 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SDAK 68 – 67 SDST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SDST 90 – 71 SDAK |
| Feb 4, 2024 | SDST 70 – 67 SDAK |
| Jan 20, 2024 | SDST 73 – 55 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 11-5 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 86.6 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#245) | 5.7 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#212) | 0.45 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#236) | 0.67 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#214) | 0.526 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 62.3% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.