Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 172.5 Under |
| Money | SDST -1000 SDAK +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +19 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -12.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -11.9 (+7.1) | 166.8 (-5.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -12.5 (+6.5) | 164.5 (-3.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -11.7 (+7.3) | 166.6 (-5.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -11.6 (+7.4) | 166.3 (-5.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SDAK 75 – 70 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SDAK 68 – 67 SDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | SDST 94 – 91 SDAK |
| Feb 4, 2024 | SDST 70 – 67 SDAK |
| Jan 20, 2024 | SDST 73 – 55 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 9-7 |
| Home | 13-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 86.6 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#99) | -4.6 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#160) | -0.71 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#149) | -1.15 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#183) | 0.449 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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