Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | SDAK +300 SDST -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +18 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -5.4 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (-30.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -4.0 (-14.0) | 151.9 (-23.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -5.7 (-12.3) | 150.2 (-22.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -4.8 (-13.2) | 151.2 (-23.2) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -4.9 (-13.1) | 151.7 (-23.7) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SDAK 75 – 70 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SDAK 68 – 67 SDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | SDST 94 – 91 SDAK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SDST 90 – 71 SDAK |
| Feb 4, 2024 | SDST 70 – 67 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 12-4 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-12 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.5 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#313) | 0.1 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#279) | -0.04 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#296) | -0.13 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#303) | 0.499 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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