Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | SDST -700 SDAK +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +1 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -10.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.7 (-30.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -8.8 (-9.8) | 155.0 (-20.0) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -8.2 (-9.2) | 155.2 (-20.2) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -8.1 (-9.1) | 155.7 (-20.7) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -8.3 (-9.3) | 156.8 (-21.8) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SDAK 75 – 70 SDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | SDST 94 – 91 SDAK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SDST 90 – 71 SDAK |
| Feb 4, 2024 | SDST 70 – 67 SDAK |
| Jan 20, 2024 | SDST 73 – 55 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 8-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 81.7 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#175) | -7.6 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#246) | -0.91 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#226) | -1.10 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#256) | 0.432 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 34.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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