Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | SDST -1600 SDAK +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +3 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -14.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (-21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -11.8 (-8.8) | 154.8 (-17.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -10.8 (-7.8) | 154.6 (-17.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -11.4 (-8.4) | 152.2 (-15.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -11.6 (-8.6) | 154.4 (-17.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SDAK 75 – 70 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SDAK 68 – 67 SDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | SDST 94 – 91 SDAK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SDST 90 – 71 SDAK |
| Jan 20, 2024 | SDST 73 – 55 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 5-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 81.5 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#162) | -10.8 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#199) | -1.50 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#181) | -1.95 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#208) | 0.406 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 12.2% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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