Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | UML +120 UMBC -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +24 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -2.7 (-21.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -1.5 (-22.5) | 142.8 (+1.2) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -1.3 (-22.7) | 141.7 (+2.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -1.6 (-22.4) | 140.9 (+3.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -1.2 (-22.8) | 143.2 (+0.8) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | UMBC 91 – 69 UML |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UMBC 79 – 56 UML |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UML 98 – 79 UMBC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UML 83 – 67 UMBC |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UML 94 – 89 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 14-2 |
| Home | 10-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-14 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#314) | -4.5 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#322) | -0.64 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#321) | -0.88 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#261) | 0.490 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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