Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | UML -333 UMBC +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +5 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | UML -11.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.5 (+18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -10.2 (-5.2) | 162.3 (+20.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -9.6 (-4.6) | 157.5 (+25.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -9.6 (-4.6) | 159.6 (+23.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -9.5 (-4.5) | 160.6 (+22.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | UMBC 91 – 69 UML |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 60 UML |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UMBC 79 – 56 UML |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UML 98 – 79 UMBC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UML 83 – 67 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 6-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 6-9 |
| Away | 10-7 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#140) | -6.1 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#135) | -1.59 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#142) | -1.61 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#125) | 0.414 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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