Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC +120 UML -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +16 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -2.2 (-18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.3 (-23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -0.9 (-16.9) | 161.9 (-11.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -0.3 (-15.7) | 161.6 (-11.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -1.0 (-17.0) | 162.4 (-12.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -0.9 (-16.9) | 163.7 (-13.7) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | UMBC 91 – 69 UML |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 60 UML |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UMBC 79 – 56 UML |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UML 98 – 79 UMBC |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UML 94 – 89 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 6-10 |
| Home | 8-9 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#256) | -4.8 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#273) | -0.29 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#257) | -0.30 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#280) | 0.495 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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