Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC -355 UML +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +22 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -10.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -12.0 (+10.0) | 144.3 (+15.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -9.0 (+13.0) | 143.6 (+16.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -11.2 (+10.8) | 144.5 (+15.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -10.6 (+11.4) | 143.5 (+16.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 60 UML |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UMBC 79 – 56 UML |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UML 98 – 79 UMBC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UML 83 – 67 UMBC |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UML 94 – 89 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 9-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 9-6 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#206) | -10.4 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#217) | -1.71 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#217) | -2.11 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#175) | 0.466 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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