Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | UML -260 UMBC +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +19 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | UML -5.3 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -5.4 (+13.6) | 158.2 (+18.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -5.6 (+13.4) | 157.7 (+19.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -5.0 (+14.0) | 158.4 (+18.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -4.9 (+14.1) | 157.7 (+19.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | UMBC 91 – 69 UML |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 60 UML |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UMBC 79 – 56 UML |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UML 83 – 67 UMBC |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UML 94 – 89 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 5-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-9 |
| Away | 3-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 80.6 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#254) | -7.5 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#242) | -1.47 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#220) | -1.55 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#208) | 0.441 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 19.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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