Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC -142 UML +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +23 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -7.0 (+16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -5.2 (+17.8) | 144.5 (-9.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -3.7 (+19.3) | 144.4 (-9.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -4.7 (+18.3) | 143.2 (-8.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -5.0 (+18.0) | 144.4 (-9.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | UMBC 91 – 69 UML |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 60 UML |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UML 98 – 79 UMBC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UML 83 – 67 UMBC |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UML 94 – 89 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 9-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 9-6 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#271) | -10.6 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#282) | -1.88 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#284) | -2.35 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#299) | 0.441 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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